Maximal Sensitive Dependence and the Optimal Path to Epidemic Extinction

Extinction of an epidemic or a species is a rare event that occurs due to a large, rare stochastic fluctuation. Although the extinction process is dynamically unstable, it follows an optimal path that maximizes the probability of extinction. We show that the optimal path is also directly related to the finite-time Lyapunov exponents of the underlying dynamical system in that the optimal path displays maximum sensitivity to initial conditions. We consider several stochastic epidemic models, and examine the extinction process in a dynamical systems framework. Using the dynamics of the finite-time Lyapunov exponents as a constructive tool, we demonstrate that the dynamical systems viewpoint of extinction evolves naturally toward the optimal path.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figures, Final revision to appear in Bulletin of Mathematical Biolog

Isochronal synchronization of delay-coupled systems

We consider small network models for mutually delay-coupled systems which typically do not exhibit stable isochronally synchronized solutions. We show that for certain coupling architectures which involve delayed self feedback to the nodes, the oscillators become isochronally synchronized. Applications are shown for both incoherent pump coupled lasers and spatio-temporal coupled fiber ring lasers.Comment: 5 pages, accepted for publication in Physical Review